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Product Abstract

Simulating Annual Variation in Load, Wind, and Solar by Representative Hour Selection

Product ID:3002008653
Date Published:09-Jun-2016
Pages:40
Sector Name:Environment
Document Type:Technical Results
Price:No Charge

This Product is publicly available

   1.25 MB - Adobe PDF (.pdf)

Abstract

The spatial and temporal variability of renewables have important economic implications for investments and system operations. This study describes a method for selecting representative hours to preserve key distributional requirements for regional load, wind, and solar time series with a two-orders-of-magnitude reduction in dimensionality. We describe the implementation of this procedure in the US-REGEN model and compare impacts on energy system decisions with more common approaches. The results demonstrate how power sector modeling and capacity planning decisions are sensitive to representation of intra-annual variation and how our proposed approach significantly outperforms simple heuristic selection procedures with lower resolution. The representative hour approach preserves key properties of the joint underlying hourly distributions, whereas seasonal average approaches over-value wind and solar at higher penetration levels and under-value investment in firm capacity by inaccurately capturing the corresponding residual load duration curves.

Program
2016 Program 103   Analysis of Environmental Policy Design, Implementation and Company Strategy
Keywords
  • Market integration
  • Variability
  • Capacity planning
  • Intermittent renewables
  • Power system modeling
  • Representative hours
Report
000000003002008653
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