Document Type:Technical Results
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The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has undertaken a bounding analysis of the impact to the electric sector of the proposed New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) for new generating units, recently put forward by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The purpose of the analysis is to look at the coal generation option, under various plausible policy and uncertainty scenarios, and not to create a singular forecast of future outcomes. The primary assumed implication of the proposed NSPS is that no new conventional coal units could be constructed without carbon capture and storage (CCS) installed. The analysis uses the U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy Model (US-REGEN) to consider the impact of this regulation under twelve different bounding scenarios, covering different potential gas price paths, technology availability, and assumptions on the lifetime of the existing coal fleet. The analysis indicates a wide range of potential impacts, with costs to the electric sector potentially ranging from $40 billion up to $300 billion through 2050 (in present value terms). Results depend strongly upon the gas price path, technology availability of new nuclear and new interregional transmission, and the assumed lifetime of the existing coal fleet in that order.
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