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Product Abstract

PRISM 2.0: Regional Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Abatement Potential in the United States for 2010-2030

Product ID:3002001675
Date Published:30-Sep-2013
Sector Name:Environment
Document Type:Technical Results

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While CO2 is the most abundant greenhouse gas (GHG), a number of other gases contribute to increasing concentration of GHGs including methane and nitrous oxide. These GHGs also represent opportunities for mitigating potential future climate change. Non- CO2 GHG abatement measures provide policy-makers and compliance entities with another potential strategy for managing GHGs. Having additional strategies implies greater flexibility for managing compliance costs and uncertainty. Non- CO2 GHG emissions sources and abatement opportunities vary by location due to regional differences in the composition of emissions, applicability of abatement measures, and market conditions. However, abatement measure analyses to date for the United States have not considered sub-national heterogeneity, which is relevant to regional decision-making and the distribution of potential GHG abatement compliance costs and revenues. This work was undertaken to estimate U.S. regional abatement costs and potential for key non- CO2 GHG sources. Specifically, this study estimated annual GHG abatement supply curves, referred to as marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, for 2010 to 2030 at five year increments for fifteen U.S. regions and four major non- CO2 GHG emitting sectors: coal mining, natural gas and oil systems, municipal solid waste landfills, and nitric and adipic acid production. State level estimates of baseline emissions and abatement measure adoption costs and performance were computed and aggregated to regions.

Nationally, total current U.S. GHG abatement supply (2010) is estimated at 85 Mt CO2e/year at $10/t CO2e and 110 Mt CO2e/year at $30/t CO2e. Over time, abatement supply is expected to increase, such that abatement supply in 2030 will be 120 Mt CO2/year at $10 and 160 at $30/t CO2. The majority of abatement is for oil and gas sector emissions, followed by coal-mine emissions, then emissions from adipic and nitric acid and landfills. Future non- CO2GHG vary significantly by region, emission source, and abatement potential. Abatement supply is largest in Texas and Southwest Central, followed by Southeast Central, Mountain North, and a portion of Northeast Central. Abatement supply is smallest in the New York, New England, and Pacific regions. Abatement potential was estimated for only a fraction of U.S. emissions from the sources considered—e.g., 35-50% of eligible emissions across regions can be abated at $30/tCO2e, with the fraction of total emissions abated even less (30% nationally).

2010 Program 181   PRISM 2.0
  • Greenhouse gas
  • Abatement
  • Climate change

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